For nearly 17 years, Mark Slade, leader of Mark Slade Homes, and his partner MaryCeu Nunes have tracked commuter markets across Essex and Union County, New Jersey, using a proprietary measure they call the 'hyper market index.' Unlike the standard absorption rate—which divides closed sales by active inventory over six months—this index compares properties under contract against the combined total of active listings, attorney review properties, and coming-soon inventory. When under-contracts exceed that total, Slade defines it as a hyper market, indicating stronger buyer demand than conventional data suggests.
As of late June 2026, the index reads 1.9 for Maplewood, meaning nearly twice as many homes are under contract as are actively available. Other towns in the index include Livingston at 0.8, West Orange at 1.1, Union at 1.3, and South Orange at 1.7. Slade views any reading above 1.0 as a hyper market, with Maplewood and South Orange showing significant imbalance favoring sellers. 'The absorption rate looks backward,' Slade explains. 'The hyper market index shows where the market is at this moment, which is what matters when a seller decides whether to list this week or a buyer decides how aggressively to offer.'
Slade pulls his data directly from the Garden State MLS, the primary listing system for agents in the corridor. Zillow aggregates from multiple sources, including private and exclusive listings not on the Garden State MLS, creating discrepancies. For Maplewood and South Orange buyers and sellers, Zillow's market reads can be materially off from the actual Garden State MLS-driven market. Slade acknowledges his data may miss homes listed on the NJ MLS, but for his clients, Garden State MLS data is the most relevant.
Percent-over-asking figures reinforce the hyper market readings. For the week ending June 21, Maplewood's average sale price is $1,323,000—up roughly $220,000 from end of 2025—with properties selling 16.1% over asking. South Orange averages $1,221,000 with 15.5% over asking, up from 10.5% at year-end 2025. Both towns ended last year below hyper threshold, with South Orange at 0.7 in December. Livingston, with the second-highest average price around $1,350,000, shows only 2.9% over asking and a hyper market ratio of 0.8, indicating supply outpacing buyer commitment.
For buyers waiting, Slade warns that deferring a purchase compounds costs. In Maplewood, average sale prices have risen roughly 22% since year-end 2025, with properties closing well above asking. 'In a market where demand runs at nearly twice the available supply, buyers who sit out are watching the entry point move further away,' Slade says. For guidance on competitive offers, appraisal waivers, and market-specific strategies, Slade directs buyers to the buyer resources page of Mark Slade Homes.
This article is based on information provided by Mark Slade. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making real estate decisions.
