Two years after Tropical Storm Helene struck Western North Carolina, new data reveals that Buncombe County has undergone the most dramatic reversal in domestic migration among all large U.S. counties, with significant implications for the region's housing market and labor force. According to an analysis of public data by Asheville-based Dry Ridge Moving, the county saw a net loss of 2,056 residents to other parts of the United States in the year following the storm, compared to a gain of 1,768 in the year before. This swing of 13.7 net movers per 1,000 residents is the largest among the 620 U.S. counties with at least 100,000 residents, surpassing the next closest county, Craighead County, Arkansas, at 12.1.
The migration shift has had a cascading effect on the local economy. Census estimates released in March showed that Buncombe County's population declined by 1,810 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, the first annual drop since at least 2000. The housing market has also cooled considerably. Active home listings in Buncombe County more than doubled from 886 in August 2024 to 1,799 in August 2026, a 103 percent increase, while the national increase was only 25 percent. The median time a listing spent on the market rose from 54 to 78 days, and Zillow's typical home value in the county fell 5.6 percent between September 2024 and July 2026, even as national home values rose 1.1 percent.
The workforce has contracted as well. Buncombe County's civilian labor force stood at 135,287 in July 2026, down 5.8 percent from July 2024, according to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. By comparison, North Carolina's statewide labor force fell only 1.2 percent over the same period. The county's unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in July 2026, after spiking immediately following the storm.
While Buncombe County's losses are stark, the broader region has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Across 23 North Carolina counties declared disaster areas after Helene, net domestic migration fell 54.5 percent, from 9,183 to 4,180, but remained positive. Henderson County, for instance, added 1,089 residents. Historical IRS migration data from tax years 2022 and 2023 shows that Florida was the leading out-of-state source of new households for several counties, including Buncombe, while South Carolina was the top destination for those leaving.
The study's authors caution that Census estimates are revised annually and may not fully capture temporary displacement, and that 2026 labor force figures are preliminary. The next county population estimates, due in spring 2027, will indicate whether the migration reversal persists. For now, the data underscores how a single natural disaster can reshape the demographic and economic trajectory of a community for years to come.
